Recession Clouds Gather; Mission Creep Threatens The Fed; Mixed Signals for Oil Barons

The battle lines over the future shape of the American economy were drawn last week. The first shot was fired by a rather innocent Jay Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. In what he thought was to be his usual report to congress Powell laid out his view on the American economy. “The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy…. I don’t think we will need to provoke a recession... [but] it’s certainly a possibility.” Powell hopes to beat the historic odds: The Wall Street Journal’s Jon Sindreu reports that of the twelve big tightening cycles since the 1950s, nine ended with a recession.