Obama Famously Said Elections Have Consequences: Here Are Some
It now seems sufficiently likely that 2024 will see a 2020 rematch between the cognitively-challenged Joe Biden and the morally-challenged Donald Trump to warrant a few guesses as to what the winner has in store for America and the world.
Free Trade R.I.P.
No matter the outcome, free trade will remain a fond memory for some while protectionism becomes the dominant feature of America’s trade policy. Biden’s protectionism will take the form of selected tariffs, subsidies for American manufacturers, especially for those with unionized workforces. Trump, never one to use a rifle when a shotgun will do, has promised a 10 per cent tariff on all imported goods.
No matter the outcome, the fiscal incontinence that has spread like, well, covid, in the halls of congress and the White House will remain uncured. Policy is on an “unsustainable fiscal path” says Fed chairman Jay Powell, but neither Biden nor Trump is the man to rein in deficits and avoid a sharp rise in interest rates demanded by lenders, some of whom already prefer the IOUs of major US companies to those of the US treasury.
Democrats propose child tax credits of about $2,000 per child. For families that pay no taxes and therefore can’t benefit from tax cuts, cheques will be in the mail – an admitted step on the road to guaranteed income for all. Trump’s seven private sector bankruptcies blot his ledger book, and he did add $7.8 trillion to the national debt when given the chance.
Biden Will Continue Greening, Trump Will Continue Hollering “Hoax”
Biden will continue to paint the economy green, partly to keep his Left, if not happy, at least not mutinous. The Congressional Budget Office last week doubled its $391 billion this would add to deficits by 2031. His war on fossil fuels will continue, featuring the subsidization of EVs consumers won’t buy and preferential treatment of contractors with green credentials. Trump will continue to shout “hoax”, repeat his earlier withdrawal from the (now-irrelevant) Paris climate accord and, change the rules governing the action of regulatory agencies, or at least those he will not shut down or depopulate – unless thwarted by congress and civil service rules.
Allies Have Reason To Worry
Biden will continue to woo allies. But with his unseemly scramble from Afghanistan, the limits he placed on Ukraine’s use of the weapons America provided, and a possible further slide in acuity over the next five years, they will sensibly worry whether they can count on him when the time comes. That worry is based on personal contact with Biden, who needs cue cards to survive such meetings, and is now being openly discussed after Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report on the President’s memory problems.
Trump will follow the demands of an ego that overpowers concern for America’s national interest. He will cede parts of Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, continue to regard Nato as a dues-paying club with little to offer America, and withhold support for any alliance member that is not current on its dues payments should his friend Vladimir decide to encourage it to rejoin the new Soviet Union.
Fed Independence Hangs By A Thread
Biden will continue the policy of most American presidents and allow the Fed to act independently of political pressure. Trump will fire Fed chairman Jerome Powell, pressure the Fed to keep interest rates low, and hunt for agreeable candidates to fill openings on the Bank’s board – competence not required.
Illegal Border-Crossings And The Gate-Keeper-In-Chief
Then there is the border, rapidly becoming the number one issue for many voters as millions from Central America, Africa, China, Syria and elsewhere surrender to border agents and receive transport to the nation’s interior. Trump used the executive pen to contain the number of illegal border crossers, Biden used his pen to open the gates to them as part of a programme that in the long run will change the demography of America into one more likely to vote Democratic. And now, in an act of political chutzpah, Biden blames the more than 3.2 million illegal entrants last year on Trump. “Hilarious”, writes one scribe. Future border policy and treatment of immigrants who arrived illegally will depend importantly on which candidate inherits the presidential pen.
Constitutional Guardrails To Be Tested Or Dismantled
Perhaps most important is the difference between the candidates when it comes to the Presidential oath to “support and defend the Constitution…”, a fabled document that sets what Charles Krauthammer called “constitutional guardrails” on the extension of presidential power. Trump was not the first president to test those guardrails, and if elected will do so again. He failed once, and will again: he could not get his border wall built, or prevent his vice president from certifying the votes of the electoral college.
Democrats go further: they will eliminate the guardrails that constrain Presidential power. The Electoral College, that forces candidates and Presidents to tailor policies with broad geographic appeal, rather than rely on simple national majorities built around coastal elites in liberal New York and California, gone, “deplorables” made irrelevant. A Senate that oscillates between Democratic and Republican parties, gone, as the District of Columbia is made a state, certain to have two Democratic senators for as far ahead as the eye can see. A Supreme Court holding the President to Constitutional limits, gone, packed with four-to-six young liberals. The Senate filibuster that requires accommodating the minority to get two-thirds of senators behind a bill, gone. The result is a far different version of democracy than the Founding Fathers created.
Voters Decide Which Candidate To Vote Against
Voters might not be pleased with the choices they have. But each represents a different and major political strain in America. Both will have been chosen by their parties in open contests. Not bad for a democracy with a 237-year-old Constitution.